SINGAPORE: On Jul 28, Malaysias former prime minister Najib Razak made history when he became the countrys highest-ranking official to be convicted in court.
Najib was found guilty of seven criminal charges relating to his role in the 1MDB investment fund corruption scandal. He was sentenced to 12 years in prison and fined US$50 million.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Najib remains on bail pending appeal, but more charges are on the table regarding misappropriation of funds.
The verdict is good news for Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. His Perikatan Nasional coalition holds the slightest of majorities in parliament after toppling Mahathir Mohamads Pakatan Harapan government in March 2020.
READ: Commentary: The great pity that was Malaysias short-lived Pakatan Harapan coalition
READ: Commentary: Muhyiddin Yassin, the all-seasoned politician, who rose to Malaysias pinnacle of power
Advertisement
Advertisement
While Perikatan Nasional appeals squarely to Malay voters in the Malayan Peninsulas rural heartland, Muhyiddin is not insensitive to the need to appeal to urbanites.
Enjoying a bump in popularity due to his sober handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, Muhyiddin can now also plausibly claim to urban voters that he is upholding the rule of law.
This, along with primary opposition party Pakatan Harapans serious internal divisions – including having no agreed candidate for prime minister – has led many to argue that Muhyiddin would be well-served by calling for snap elections to gain legitimacy and a larger majority.
IMPLICATIONS FOR POLITICAL PARTIES
But things are not so clear-cut. Najibs guilty verdict has very different implications for the three largest component parties of Perikatan Nasional, namely: Muhyiddins own party, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), UMNO and the Islamic party PAS.
Malaysians politicians from Perikatan Nasional with King Abdullah Riayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah. (Photo: Facebook/Perikatan Nasional)
These parties compete for the same Malay-majority seats, largely in rural areas.
PAS and the current UMNO leadership are pushing hard for early elections, flush with confidence that their Malay and Islamic credentials, as well as Malaysias electoral maths, will help them clinch a victory.
Muhyiddin has no guarantee that these parties will nominate him as their prime ministerial candidate, or that they will not decide to compete against his party at the last minute. UMNO faces pressure from its grassroots to push hard in seat negotiations to regain its former dominant position.
READ: Commentary: Malaysia in a delicate balance after Najib Razaks conviction
READ: Commentary: This is not the end of Najib Razak
Muhyiddins popularity notwithstanding, his Bersatu party is less certain to do well in snap polls. Of its 31 MPs, roughly a third are defectors from Anwar Ibrahims Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and are factionally aligned with former PKR minister Azmin Ali.
Having been elected in urban areas on PKRs reform agenda in 2018, these MPs are unlikely to be re-elected if they stand in the same constituencies.
Many of the other Bersatu MPs ran in UMNO territory and won relatively small majorities. Bersatus grassroots support network is weak – and should they compete with UMNO directly, they may well lose.
Even if they team up with UMNO, there is no guarantee that that partys machinery will support them with any enthusiasm.
READ: Commentary: Malaysias political centre has shifted but national leaders are still searching for it
Even if Perikatan Nasional competes as one entity in the next election and wins, it is quite likely that Muhyiddins position within the coalition will be weakened.
Should UMNO win handsomely, it is likely that he would be asked to yield the prime ministership to an UMNO leader.
BIDING TIME
At this juncture, Muhyiddin has more to gain from postponing polls, shoring up his position, and letting UMNO weaken through its own internal dynamics.
File photo of Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak walking beside his deputy Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. (Photo: Reuters/Lai Seng Sin)
UMNOs internal factions view Najibs guilty verdict differently from one another. As a former UMNO president Najib is influential, but his guilty verdict is a severe reversal: He has posted bail and can retain his seat as an MP while his appeal is pending, but is barred from running for office in the event elections are called.
Snap elections would put him in the political wilderness with none of the prominence his current status gives him.
