Home UK 10 Tories with the best odds of replacing May

10 Tories with the best odds of replacing May

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Alix Culbertson and Sanya Burgess, news reporters

The prospect of a fresh Conservative leadership contest has reared its head – with Theresa May's tenure as prime minister in doubt following the resignations of several Tory ministers.

In the Commons, the PM defended the 585-page draft Brexit agreement, even as some of her own MPs attacked it.

Speaking outside parliament, leading Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg confirmed he had submitted a no confidence letter in his party's leader but denied he was heading up a coup.

Dominic Raab was the first cabinet minister to resign on Thursday – and was followed shortly afterwards by Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey.

Mrs May has vowed to fight any Tory leadership election if it comes.

Here are the top 10 Conservatives who could replace Mrs May as party leader, and therefore prime minister:

Image: Dominic Raab quit dramatically over the draft agreement

Dominic Raab

Bookies are offering joint best odds on Mr Raab becoming the next leader, along with Sajid Javid, the home secretary.

Mr Raab, 44, told Sky News the UK needs to "change course" on Brexit – hours after quitting as Brexit secretary.

His decision to quit his front line role could hinder the MP for Esher and Walton in any leadership aspirations if his colleagues see him as shirking responsibility, but others may see him as a man of principle.

Sky Bet puts the odds of him taking over from Mrs May at 5/1, joint first in the running.

Home Secretary Sajid Javid arrives in Downing Street
Image: Home Secretary Sajid Javid could be in the running

Sajid Javid

The ambitious home secretary has made no secret about wanting Mrs May's job.

Having risen quickly through the Tory ranks, the former banker, 48, is a natural eurosceptic but was strong-armed into backing the Remain campaign by David Cameron and George Osborne.

Mr Javid blocked Mrs May's customs compromise, bringing him back in favour with Brexiteers.

As the son of a Pakistani bus conductor, he would be the first-ever black or Asian leader of a major political party in Britain.

Sky Bet puts the odds of him taking over from Mrs May at 5/1, joint first in the running.

Boris Johnson
Image: Boris Johnson is considered a likely contender

Boris Johnson

The former foreign secretary, who quit the government in July, used to be the top contender for succeeding Mrs May as leader – but over the past couple of weeks, the 54-year-old has slipped to being third in the odds.

A strong opponent of the initial Chequers plan, the Brexiteer has been gunning for the PM's job for a while.

After the general election last year, sources told Sky News he was "on manoeuvres" and sounding out MPs about a possible leadership bid.

He is very popular with party members, but many of his colleagues are not so keen on him, meaning it could be tough for him to get on the ballot list in the first place.

Sky Bet put the odds of him succeeding Mrs May at 11/2.

Jacob Rees-Mogg speaking to Sky News after the EFT event
Image: Jacob Rees-Mogg said has issued a no confidence vote in the PM

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Of all MPs, Mr Rees-Mogg is arguably one of Mrs May's biggest headaches.

He is also potentially the biggest risk to her position after very publicly filing a vote of no confidence in her – moments after she fought to convince the House to back her draft agreement.

Addressing reporters outside parliament, the 49-year-old did not mince his words, saying: "This is a failure of government policy, it needs to be rejected."

He has strong support from voters, old and young alike, due to what they consider his honesty over his core beliefs and his eloquent speaking style.

However, the father of six has always maintained he does not want her job – even if others want him to take it.

Despite his protestations, the odds of him becoming Tory leader are 8/1.

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, arrives in Downing Street
Image: Jeremy Hunt replaced Boris Johnson as foreign secretary

Jeremy Hunt

Known as "Teflon Jeremy" for his ability to brush off criticism during his time as the longest-serving health secretary, Mr Hunt's has had a relatively smooth ride as foreign secretary in comparison and this has set him in good stead to take over from Mrs May.

The 52-year-old is unlikely to be part of a coup to oust Mrs May, but the ambitious minister could throw his hat in the ring after others do so.

Despite running before, he has defended Mrs May – saying she is doing an "excellent job" and it is important to give her "full support".

The odds of him replacing her are 8/1.

Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davis delivers a speech in London, on the UK's vision for our future security relationship with the EU.
Image: David Davis failed to secure the Conservative leadership in 2005

David Davis

Satirised as the "Brexit Bulldog" during his time as the inaugural Brexit secretary, the prominent Brexiteer is still thought to harbour ambitions for the top job after losing 2005's leadership contest to David Cameron.

The 69-year-old was appointed Brexit secretary after the 2016 referendum but resigned over his opposition to the Chequers deal.

In October, he called on cabinet ministers to stage a mutiny against Theresa May to kill her Brexit plan.

He wrote in The Sunday Times: "This is one of the most fundamental decisions that government has taken in modern times.

"It is time for the cabinet to exert their collective authority. This week the authority of our constitution is on the line."

Sky Bet puts the odds of him replacing Theresa May at 9/1.

Michael Gove
Image: Michael Gove ran against Theresa May in the most recent leadership race

Michael Gove

The environment secretary has been hankering after Mrs May's job for a long time, running against her in last year's election.

He is being considered to replace Mr Raab as Brexit secretary, but it is unlikely this will satiate Mr Gove's ambitions.

The leading Brexiteer, 51, has strong support from party members, farmers and green campaigners after refashioning himself as an "eco-warrior" fighting to get the best Brexit deal for farmers and fishermen.

The odds of him replacing Mrs May are 9/1.

Penny Mordaunt is first government minister to use sign language in the House of Commons
Image: Penny Mordaunt has been gunning for Mrs May's position

Any women?

Penny Mordaunt, 45, and Andrea Leadsom, 55, are the only two women in the top 10 candidates thought to be in with a chance.

International development secretary and Brexiteer Ms Mordaunt wrote a lengthy article on improving leadership in UK politics earlier this year. It has been seen as a pitch to be Mrs May's successor.

Many political commentators are keeping one eye on her Twitter feed as rumours swirl she is considering resigning over the draft agreement.

Her odds are 16/1.

Leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom arrives in Downing Street
Image: Andrea Leadsom was in the final two with Theresa May in 2016

Leader of the Commons and a top Brexiteer, Ms Leadsom has held several ministerial and cabinet positions since 2014, providing her with some necessary experience.

She was in the final two for 2016's leadership contest but pulled out to give Mrs May the position after saying being a mother gave her an advantage over the childless Mrs May.

Ms Leadsom's odds are also 16/1.

Matt Hancock
Image: Matt Hancock is a little way behind the nine contenders ranked ahead of him

And finally…

Mr Hunt's replacement as secretary of state for health and social care, Matt Hancock, is a protege of former chancellor George Osborne.

Nonetheless, the 40-year-old has fared well under Mrs May and has been rewarded for his enthusiasm – matched only by his ambition.

More from Brexit

A Marmite character among his colleagues, many may think he is too young for the top job.

Mr Hancock's odds are 25/1.

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