Could the UK Really Rejoin the EU Under Andy Burnham?

Key Points

• Prime Minister Andy Burnham has reopened the possibility of the UK eventually rejoining the European Union, marking a significant departure from the previous Labour government’s Brexit position.
• Burnham has said Brexit has “done more harm than good” and that future options should range from maintaining the current relationship to a customs union, single-market membership or full EU membership.
• The Guardian’s Katherine Butler reports that Burnham plans to assess public support before setting out longer-term options, with rejoining the 27-member bloc among those being considered.
• Research reported by Pippa Crerar and Rowena Mason found 49% support for rejoining the EU, compared with 28.5% opposition, in a poll of 11,461 people.
• The same research suggested Labour’s vote share could rise by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points under different scenarios involving closer EU ties.
• European leaders have signalled openness to renewed British engagement, with French President Emmanuel Macron saying “welcome back” and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez saying Spain would support a UK bid.
• The EU has nevertheless indicated that Britain must first decide what relationship it wants before Brussels determines its own negotiating position.
• Full EU membership would involve major political and economic questions, including free movement, regulatory alignment, trade policy and the conditions attached to any accession.
• A prospective UK-EU summit in November is expected to provide an important opportunity to discuss the future relationship, although major questions are unlikely to be settled immediately.
• The debate is also being shaped by the EU’s emerging “Made in Europe” industrial strategy, which could increase the disadvantages faced by British businesses operating outside the bloc.

Ireland Now News (INN) October 7, 2026 – Prime Minister Andy Burnham has reopened one of the most consequential questions in British politics by placing the possibility of the United Kingdom eventually rejoining the European Union on the table. His intervention represents a marked change from the previous Labour government’s approach, which ruled out returning to the EU single market and customs union. Burnham has instead ordered a review of the UK’s long-term relationship with Europe and indicated that the full range of options, including EU membership, should be considered. The move comes as polling shows substantial public support for closer relations with the bloc, while European officials have indicated that Brussels is prepared to engage once Britain defines what it wants.

The central development is not that Britain has decided to seek EU membership. It has not. The immediate change is political: the government is now willing to discuss an outcome that had previously been excluded from Labour’s official position.

In reporting published by The Guardian on October 7, associate Europe editor Katherine Butler said Burnham had effectively begun a “quiet U-turn” on Brexit after arguing that leaving the European Union had done “more harm than good”. Butler reported that the prime minister intended to spend the coming weeks assessing public support before setting out possible long-term arrangements.

The significance lies in the removal of previous political restrictions. Under Keir Starmer, Labour’s 2024 election manifesto had ruled out returning to the single market, customs union and free movement. Burnham has now indicated that those restrictions should no longer determine the future debate.

What exactly has Andy Burnham said about rejoining the European Union?

Burnham’s position is currently framed as a review rather than a commitment to rejoin.

As reported by Kiran Stacey and Lisa O’Carroll of The Guardian, Burnham initially announced a review of Britain’s relationship with Europe during his first Labour conference speech as party leader. He subsequently clarified that the review would include the possibility of full EU membership.

Burnham said Britain could remain under the existing arrangements, examine a customs union, consider the single market or “go all the way” towards EU membership.

That distinction is important. A review of the relationship does not amount to a government decision to seek accession. It indicates instead that the government wants to establish which relationship would best serve Britain’s long-term interests before deciding what should eventually be included in Labour’s next election programme.

Burnham has also linked the question to Britain’s economic position. His argument is that the EU remains the UK’s largest and closest trading relationship, meaning the future of that relationship could have consequences for economic growth and the government’s wider domestic programme.

Why has Brexit become central to Burnham’s economic strategy?

Economic considerations are at the centre of the debate.

Katherine Butler reported that estimates of the economic damage associated with leaving the single market range between 6% and 8% of GDP, although the precise effect of Brexit remains contested and depends on the methodology used.

Joël Reland of UK in a Changing Europe told Butler that Burnham’s approach represented a significant departure because previous Labour policy had concentrated on making the existing Brexit settlement work rather than questioning the settlement itself.

The argument being advanced by supporters of closer European ties is that reducing barriers to Britain’s largest trading market could improve economic performance.

However, there is no immediate guarantee that rejoining would produce a particular level of economic growth. Any eventual agreement would depend on the terms negotiated between Britain and the EU, the obligations accepted by the UK and the economic circumstances prevailing at the time.

The existing UK-EU reset also provides an important part of the context.

Butler reported that the reset launched under Starmer in 2025 had encountered disputes and that the government’s own figures estimated its eventual economic contribution at no more than 0.3% of GDP by 2040.

That has created a distinction between improving the current Brexit settlement and considering a fundamentally closer relationship.

What are the possible alternatives to full EU membership?

Full re-entry is only one of several options being discussed.

Lisa O’Carroll of The Guardian outlined a range of possible relationships, including a customs union, membership of the single market through arrangements comparable with the European Economic Area, associate membership and eventual full EU membership.

A customs union would reduce some trade barriers but would require Britain to align its external trade policy and tariffs with the EU.

Single-market membership would provide considerably deeper economic integration. It would also involve the four freedoms associated with the single market, including the movement of people, goods, services and capital.

The European Economic Area model, used by countries including Norway and Liechtenstein, has therefore been discussed as a possible intermediate arrangement.

A Swiss-style relationship has also been examined. Switzerland is outside the EU but maintains extensive access to the single market under a network of agreements. That model has included obligations involving free movement and financial contributions.

Associate membership is another concept entering the discussion, although its precise form remains uncertain.

The key point is that Britain would not simply be able to choose whichever benefits it wanted while rejecting all corresponding obligations. EU officials have repeatedly indicated that closer market access comes with rules and commitments.

Would the EU actually allow Britain to rejoin?

The European side has responded more positively to the prospect of renewed British engagement than some domestic political debate might suggest, but that does not mean the terms of re-entry have already been agreed.

Jennifer Rankin of The Guardian reported that Macron responded to Burnham’s comments by saying “welcome back”. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez also said Spain would open its arms to a British application to rejoin the EU.

Macron nevertheless emphasised that Britain could not simply select individual freedoms while remaining outside the wider framework.

European officials have said the UK remains a close and valued partner, but responsibility for defining the next step rests initially with London.

That position was reinforced in an interview reported by diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour. Jukka Salovaara, the EU ambassador to Britain, said Brussels was ready to engage after the UK had conducted its own debate and identified the options it wanted to pursue.

Salovaara described himself as a facilitator between London and Brussels rather than someone who would personally conduct negotiations.

He also stressed that the relationship involved practical areas where closer cooperation could produce tangible changes, including food standards, carbon emissions trading, youth mobility and security.

What would full EU membership mean for Britain?

Full membership would involve considerably more than removing customs barriers.

According to Lisa O’Carroll’s analysis for The Guardian, returning to the EU would require a referendum in Britain and potentially years of negotiations. It would also involve accepting free movement and the wider obligations of membership.

The political circumstances would therefore be fundamentally different from the situation before the 2016 referendum.

A future British government would have to demonstrate that any agreement had sufficient political durability. EU officials have indicated that a major change in Britain’s relationship would be easier to sustain if there were broad political support inside Britain.

Jukka Salovaara told Patrick Wintour that such a fundamental change would normally require strong consensus, although whether that consensus would need to be demonstrated through another referendum would ultimately be a British decision.

The terms would also have to be negotiated.

Britain could not assume that the terms it enjoyed as an EU member before Brexit would automatically be restored. The circumstances have changed, and the EU itself has developed new policies and priorities.

Why is the EU’s “Made in Europe” strategy important?

One of the less obvious forces behind the debate is the EU’s changing economic and industrial policy.

Katherine Butler reported that the “Made in Europe” strategy is intended to strengthen European industry and protect it against competition, particularly from China. British companies could face disadvantages if UK-made products were treated as non-European for the purposes of future programmes and supply chains.

This issue has particular significance for British manufacturing.

The Burnham government has already sought clarification over Britain’s position in relation to the policy. The question illustrates the difficulty of remaining outside the EU while attempting to preserve access to policies increasingly designed around the interests of member states.

The issue is not restricted to manufacturing.

Butler reported that UK in a Changing Europe analyst Joël Reland viewed the development as evidence of a broader change in EU policy, involving industrial strategy, artificial intelligence, technological sovereignty and security.

For Britain, that creates a strategic question: whether negotiating closer links in individual sectors will continue to provide sufficient access, or whether a broader institutional relationship becomes more practical.

What does the latest polling say about British public opinion?

Polling provides the clearest evidence that the political environment surrounding Brexit has changed since the 2016 referendum.

Pippa Crerar and Rowena Mason of The Guardian reported that a Messina Group poll of 11,461 people found 49% supported rejoining the EU, compared with 28.5% opposed. The research was conducted between September 12 and 24 and weighted by the 2016 referendum result.

The survey also found that 54.9% regarded Brexit as a failure, while 12.2% regarded it as a success. Separately, 52.4% said Britain had been wrong to leave, compared with 29.7% who said leaving was right.

However, the polling also demonstrates that there is no single consensus about what should replace the current arrangement.

Almost half supported keeping the existing relationship while reducing trade barriers. A customs union was supported by 47.1%, while single-market membership and associate membership attracted support from 45.1% and 45.5% respectively.

Only 27.9% supported moving further away from the EU, while 41.2% opposed that option.

The poll also found that 25.9% favoured immediate re-entry, 22.9% supported rejoining within three years and 8.4% favoured doing so over the following decade.

Could closer EU ties help Labour electorally?

The polling suggests that the issue could have significant electoral consequences.

Crerar and Mason reported that the research found Labour’s projected vote share could increase by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points under different scenarios involving closer European ties. Much of the potential increase came from voters supporting the Greens and Liberal Democrats.

The research also found that more than two-thirds of voters considered trade with the EU more important than trade with the United States or China if Britain had to choose between them. At the same time, immigration control and questions of sovereignty continued to resonate with voters.

That combination means the political debate is unlikely to be straightforward.

A policy of closer European integration could attract voters who favour stronger economic and political links with the continent while creating concerns among voters who regard sovereignty and immigration controls as central consequences of Brexit.

How could the Conservatives and Reform UK respond?

The political response has already begun to divide along different lines.

Nigel Farage has welcomed the reopening of the Brexit argument. In reporting by Kiran Stacey and Lisa O’Carroll, some Downing Street figures expressed concern that an explicit commitment to rejoin could strengthen Reform UK.

At the same time, Gaby Hinsliff argued in The Guardian that the Conservatives face a more complicated strategic choice.

Hinsliff reported that Reform had reacted enthusiastically, while the Conservatives had been less emphatic in making Brexit the centre of their current political message. She noted the tension between Conservative arguments for economic growth and a commitment to reversing Labour efforts to deepen ties with Europe.

Her analysis is opinion rather than a statement of Conservative policy, and she argued that the party could benefit politically by allowing Burnham to take responsibility for the consequences of any future EU strategy rather than immediately opposing every attempt to reconsider Brexit.

The Conservative response will therefore be significant, particularly because the party continues to balance its traditional Brexit electorate against its current emphasis on economic growth.

What role will the November UK-EU summit play?

The expected UK-EU summit in November could become an important staging point, although it is not expected to settle the question of British membership.

Patrick Wintour reported that the summit was pencilled in for November and that areas including food standards, carbon emissions trading, youth mobility and security could form part of the discussions.

Negotiations over a proposed youth experience scheme are also continuing. According to Wintour, Britain initially offered 50,000 places annually for young people, while Brussels was seeking 150,000.

The summit is therefore more likely to establish the direction of the relationship than to produce a final agreement on rejoining.

The EU has also indicated that some major elements of its industrial policy will not be ready for a definitive decision at the meeting.

Why would Britain need to consider Europe’s own transformation before rejoining?

The central question is no longer simply whether Brexit has benefited or harmed Britain.

Katherine Butler reported that the EU itself has changed since Britain left. The bloc is increasingly considering industrial policy, technology, security and strategic autonomy alongside traditional areas such as trade, agriculture and environmental regulation.

That means any British debate over rejoining would have to consider the EU as it exists in the future rather than the EU Britain left in 2020.

The UK’s relationship with Europe is also being reconsidered against a different international backdrop, including changing trade relationships, security pressures and competition between major economic powers.

For that reason, the debate about EU membership is becoming broader than the question of restoring pre-Brexit arrangements.

What is the background to Britain’s renewed EU debate?

The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, beginning a political and constitutional process that culminated in formal withdrawal in January 2020 and the end of the transition period later that year.

Keir Starmer’s Labour government subsequently sought to improve relations with Brussels without reversing the central elements of Brexit. Its position ruled out membership of the single market and customs union and rejected a return to free movement.

Burnham has now moved beyond those restrictions.

The shift follows years of debate over the economic consequences of Brexit, the cost of trade barriers and Britain’s ability to influence European decisions while remaining outside the EU.

Earlier calls for closer integration have also emerged from prominent British figures. The Guardian reported in September that former prime minister Tony Blair supported Britain working towards EU re-entry over the next decade, while former chancellor George Osborne called for membership of the EU customs union.

The present debate therefore represents an acceleration of an argument that has increasingly moved into mainstream political discussion.

What could happen next to the UK-EU relationship?

The immediate next step is likely to be further assessment rather than a formal application for EU membership.

Burnham has indicated that his government will examine public opinion and the available models before deciding what position to adopt. The November summit is expected to provide an opportunity for further discussions with Brussels.

The EU’s current position is that Britain must first establish its own objectives. Jukka Salovaara told The Guardian that “the ball is very much with the UK” before Brussels can engage on the range of possibilities.

That leaves several potential paths: maintaining the existing arrangement, negotiating a customs union, seeking deeper single-market participation, developing another form of association or eventually pursuing full membership.

None of those outcomes has yet been selected.

What could this development mean for British voters, businesses and exporters?

For British voters, the principal effect is that EU membership has returned to mainstream political debate as a possible long-term policy rather than remaining outside Labour’s range of consideration.

For businesses, the outcome could affect customs procedures, regulatory alignment, access to European supply chains, recruitment and the movement of goods and services. However, those effects cannot yet be quantified because no final model has been selected.

For exporters, closer integration could potentially reduce some of the barriers associated with Britain’s current position outside the single market, while any move towards full membership would involve accepting EU rules and obligations.

For young people, negotiations over youth mobility could eventually affect opportunities to work, study and travel in Europe, although those discussions remain separate from the much larger question of EU membership.

For farmers and food businesses, the importance of common standards could be particularly significant because food trade is closely linked to regulatory and border requirements. EU ambassador Jukka Salovaara told The Guardian that nearly 60% of UK food exports go to the EU market and about 70% of UK food imports come from the EU.

For the Labour Party, the issue creates both an electoral opportunity and a political risk. Polling suggests substantial support for closer European ties, but the same research shows that immigration and sovereignty remain important concerns.

Prediction: How could the renewed EU debate affect the British public?

The most likely short-term effect is continued political and public debate rather than immediate British re-entry into the European Union.

Burnham’s decision to consider all options has already changed the terms of the discussion. The question is no longer whether Labour is willing to discuss reversing parts of Brexit, but which level of European integration could command sufficient public and political support.

If public support for closer relations remains at the levels identified in recent polling, Labour could face pressure to offer a more detailed European policy before the next general election. Conversely, if opposition grows around immigration, sovereignty or the terms of any proposed agreement, the government may favour a narrower arrangement such as a customs union or enhanced trade cooperation.

The EU’s response also indicates that Brussels is prepared to listen, but it is not offering Britain a simple return to its former position. Any future negotiations would involve obligations, regulatory alignment and political commitments.

For British businesses and consumers, the practical consequences will therefore depend less on the announcement of a review than on the specific relationship eventually chosen.